Jacob Wels

Report, electric energy production counts the data display in June when the national power-managenment and communation centre announces newly according to what Hong Kong Wen Hui Daily is sent back from Shanghai, the electric energy production in Mainland is up to 3,093.28 hundred million kilowatt-hour in June, increase by 3.59% compared with the same period of last year, wander up and down and shoulder the operation of location after turning back the low order in serial several months of electric energy production before this.

As one of the wind vanes of the macroeconomic changes in temperature, the becoming a full member of electric energy production initiates the optimistic mood that the external world gets warm again after a cold spell to the inland economic essence. But expert think this in that some factor that economy get warm again after a cold spell, but main high-temperature weather cause the intersection of air conditioner and electricity consumption increase, cause, whether economy gets warm again after a cold spell and still awaits machine format further confirmation such as the foreign trade, export, electricity consumption structure.

The statistics show, single monthly electric energy production realizes 3.59% of the amplification compared with the same period of last year in June; Among them, generation amplification is up to 7% in the last ten days of June. This happens to be identical with high-temperature weather of several provinces in the hinterland.

Counting department director Xue Jing of enterprise’s federation thinks, use electric fast increase in short term with China Power, mainly temperature causes, it is not the sign that the economy gets warm again after a cold spell by a wide margin, when the temperature is high, the air conditioner of enterprises will increase to count too. Judge whether the electricity consumption really increase, ” look next quarter at least ” . Though become a full member in generation amplification in June, because electric energy production is defeated by the location and run in serial several months, in general, a amplification compared with the same period of last year of electric energy production of accumulation to June is still negative this year.

This first two months, the industrial enterprise (manage the enterprises of more than 5 million yuan of business income mainly every year) of the above-mentioned inland scale of that month of May Value added increases by 8.9% compared with the same period of last year, increase by 7.3% compared with the same period of last year in April. In view of June PMI and electric energy production advantage, the new investment report thinks the most Haitong Securities, the industrial added value speedup in this month may go beyond expectancy even more.

China’s stream and purchasing the information that the federation releases before this, manager’s index (PMI) of purchase of national manufacturing industry in June It is 53.2%, higher than 0.1 percentage points of last month, has lain in the critical point above 50% for four months in succession, indicate economy is in expanding one.

Haitong Securities also thinks, the industrial added value speedup of June may go beyond expectancy. External demand stable to rebound and non-governmental investment start, make economic situation of the second half year kind than first half of the year to some extent.